Blue Jays
Elo 1514 · #11 · 76-77
@
Sun, Sep 6, 1:11 PM CT
Final 1–6
Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
Spencer Arrighetti vs Randy Dobnak
Blue Jays RL
-1.5+138Kalshi
Royals RL
+1.5-144Kalshi
Over / Under
O 9.5+106NoVig
U 9.5-108Kalshi
Blue Jays ML
-112ProphetX
Royals ML
+111NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
92°F
Clear
Wind 4 mph · crosswind
7 PM
4
8 PM
2
9 PM
3
10 PM
5
Blue Jays record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home40-38
Away36-39
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1

Win probability — Royals

Market47.5%
Model50.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRoyals +111NoVig+1.9% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
86
ERA
4.90
FIP
5.04
K-BB%
8.7%
IP
108
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home503.061.029.43.8.170
Away586.481.688.06.3.258
Night676.011.408.65.2.222
vs LHB62—1.548.96.5.224
vs RHB45—1.178.33.4.213
rating
94
ERA
2.73
FIP
3.97
K-BB%
8.3%
IP
69
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home343.931.606.03.9.296
Away351.540.946.22.1.198
Night442.441.155.92.8.226
vs LHB43—1.225.41.9.267
vs RHB26—1.367.44.9.219

Injuries

Blue Jays injuries
Addison Barger · RF · Injured 60-Day
Anthony Santander · RF · Injured 60-Day
Bowden Francis · P · Injured 60-Day
Cody Ponce · P · Injured 60-Day
Jake Bloss · P · Injured 60-Day
Jameson Taillon · P · Injured 15-Day
Jonatan Clase · LF · Injured 60-Day
José Berríos · P · Injured 60-Day
Luis Urías · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Patrick Corbin · P · Injured 60-Day
Rudy Martin Jr. · RF · Injured 10-Day
Shane Bieber · P · Injured 15-Day
Trey Yesavage · P · Injured 15-Day
Yimi García · P · Injured 60-Day
Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day