Pirates
Elo 1504 · #15 · 75-77
@
Fri, Sep 11, 1:21 PM CT
Final 2–12
Cubs
Elo 1559 · #4 · 85-68
Wilber Dotel vs Shota Imanaga
Pirates RL
+1.5-113Kalshi
Cubs RL
-1.5+112ProphetX
Over / Under
O 8.5+105ProphetX
U 8.5-104Kalshi
Pirates ML
+174NoVig
Cubs ML
-178NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
68°F
Cloudy
Wind 10 mph · in from CF (−10)
7 PM
10
8 PM
6
9 PM
5
10 PM
7
Pirates record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home39-36
Away37-41
Last 106-4
StreakW1
Cubs record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home45-33
Away40-35
Last 104-6
StreakW1

Win probability — Cubs

Market63.7%
Model53.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineCubs -178NoVig-5.3% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Wilber Dotel
Pirates
No rating yet (under 20 IP or not announced).
rating
108
ERA
3.80
FIP
4.54
K-BB%
18.6%
IP
168
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home1064.001.148.72.0.239
Away633.451.058.91.9.225
Night1014.261.088.31.8.232
vs LHB45—1.169.72.6.229
vs RHB122—1.108.61.8.235

Injuries

Pirates injuries
Braxton Ashcraft · P · Injured 15-Day
Endy Rodríguez · C · Injured 60-Day
Esmerlyn Valdez · RF · Injured 10-Day
Isaac Mattson · P · Injured 15-Day
Kirby Yates · P · Injured 15-Day
Mitch Keller · P · Injured 60-Day
Cubs injuries
Ben Brown · P · Injured 60-Day
Cade Horton · P · Injured 60-Day
Dansby Swanson · SS · Injured 10-Day
Gavin Hollowell · P · Injured 15-Day
Hunter Harvey · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele · P · Injured 60-Day
Phil Maton · P · Injured 60-Day
Porter Hodge · P · Injured 60-Day
Riley Martin · P · Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller · P · Injured 60-Day
Trent Thornton · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Austin · 1B · Injured 60-Day