Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
@
Fri, Sep 11, 6:11 PM CT
Final 3–2
Red Sox
Elo 1550 · #5 · 82-70
Seth Lugo vs Sonny Gray
Royals RL
+1.5-117Kalshi
Red Sox RL
-1.5+113Kalshi
Over / Under
O 8.5+104Kalshi
U 8.5-108Kalshi
Royals ML
+184ProphetX
Red Sox ML
-186Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
74°F
Cloudy
Wind 8 mph · out to CF (+8)
7 PM
8
8 PM
7
9 PM
4
10 PM
6
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Red Sox record
Overall83-70 · .542
Home38-37
Away45-33
Last 105-5
StreakW1

Win probability — Red Sox

Market64.3%
Model65.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRed Sox -186Kalshi-0.5% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
Royals
rating
95
ERA
4.99
FIP
4.14
K-BB%
10.3%
IP
164
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home864.071.366.33.1.269
Away786.031.567.72.7.312
Night1104.081.387.12.7.284
vs LHB100—1.607.43.4.304
vs RHB62—1.266.42.2.266
Red Sox
rating
110
ERA
2.76
FIP
3.47
K-BB%
15.4%
IP
157
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home742.911.067.82.2.223
Away822.621.268.32.6.256
Night1102.381.118.62.3.232
vs LHB102—1.168.62.7.233
vs RHB54—1.207.12.0.254

Injuries

Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day
Red Sox injuries
Anthony Seigler · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Ceddanne Rafaela · CF · Injured 10-Day
Curtis Mead · 3B · Injured 10-Day
Eduardo Rivera · P · Injured 60-Day
Eli White · CF · Injured 10-Day
Garrett Crochet · P · Injured 60-Day
Johan Oviedo · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Slaten · P · Injured 15-Day
Kutter Crawford · P · Injured 60-Day
Masataka Yoshida · DH · Injured 10-Day
Tanner Houck · P · Injured 60-Day
Triston Casas · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Tyron Guerrero · P · Injured 15-Day
Zack Kelly · P · Injured 60-Day