Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Matchup factors
Weather
81°F
Clear
Wind 1 mph · in from CF (−1)
7 PM
1
8 PM
1
9 PM
2
10 PM
2
Phillies recordOverall85-68 · .556
Home41-34
Away44-34
Last 105-5
StreakW2
Braves recordOverall89-64 · .582
Home51-27
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Win probability — Braves
Market62.7%
Model62.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).
Model picks
MoneylineBraves -167NoVig+0.1% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean
Starting pitchers
Compare starters →ERA
4.69
FIP
4.92
K-BB%
15.9%
IP
161
| Split | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | OBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 75 | 5.30 | 1.46 | 9.6 | 2.8 | .288 |
| Away | 87 | 4.15 | 1.29 | 8.8 | 3.3 | .245 |
| Night | 116 | 4.50 | 1.40 | 9.2 | 3.3 | .266 |
| vs LHB | 96 | — | 1.47 | 8.9 | 4.3 | .255 |
| vs RHB | 64 | — | 1.26 | 9.9 | 1.3 | .280 |
ERA
2.18
FIP
2.12
K-BB%
25.4%
IP
157
| Split | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | OBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 81 | 1.66 | 0.93 | 10.1 | 1.8 | .202 |
| Away | 76 | 2.74 | 1.06 | 11.8 | 1.8 | .230 |
| Night | 110 | 2.12 | 0.97 | 10.4 | 1.7 | .211 |
| vs LHB | 40 | — | 1.01 | 12.0 | 1.1 | .230 |
| vs RHB | 117 | — | 0.99 | 10.5 | 2.0 | .211 |
Injuries
Phillies injuriesAdolis García · RF · Injured 60-Day
Brad Keller · P · Injured 60-Day
Caleb Kilian · P · Injured 15-Day
Felix Reyes · LF · Injured 60-Day
Jesús Luzardo · P · Injured 15-Day
Johan Rojas · CF · Injured 60-Day
Braves injuriesBryce Elder · P · Injured 15-Day
Joe Jiménez · P · Injured 60-Day
Joey Wentz · P · Injured 60-Day
Lane Thomas · LF · Injured 10-Day
Reynaldo López · P · Injured 15-Day
Robert Suarez · P · Injured 60-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach · P · Injured 60-Day
Spencer Strider · P · Injured 60-Day