Pirates
Elo 1504 · #15 · 75-77
@
Sat, Sep 12, 1:21 PM CT
Final 3–4
Cubs
Elo 1559 · #4 · 85-68
Paul Skenes vs Clay Holmes
Pirates RL
+1.5-170Kalshi
Cubs RL
-1.5+163Kalshi
Over / Under
O 9.5+117Kalshi
U 9.5-115NoVig
Pirates ML
+115NoVig
Cubs ML
-117Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
68°F
Cloudy
Wind 10 mph · in from CF (−10)
7 PM
10
8 PM
6
9 PM
5
10 PM
7
Pirates record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home39-36
Away37-41
Last 106-4
StreakW1
Cubs record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home45-33
Away40-35
Last 104-6
StreakW1

Win probability — Cubs

Market53.4%
Model51.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineCubs -117Kalshi-1.9% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
123
ERA
3.78
FIP
3.14
K-BB%
20.9%
IP
162
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home883.701.1211.32.5.228
Away743.871.149.12.7.230
Night1023.521.0710.62.6.211
vs LHB96—1.139.83.0.218
vs RHB65—1.1511.01.9.243
rating
99
ERA
2.85
FIP
3.62
K-BB%
9.8%
IP
92
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home461.941.147.43.1.215
Away453.771.156.53.6.206
Night572.351.107.43.0.212
vs LHB58—1.136.73.0.216
vs RHB34—1.187.44.0.202

Injuries

Pirates injuries
Braxton Ashcraft · P · Injured 15-Day
Endy Rodríguez · C · Injured 60-Day
Esmerlyn Valdez · RF · Injured 10-Day
Isaac Mattson · P · Injured 15-Day
Kirby Yates · P · Injured 15-Day
Mitch Keller · P · Injured 60-Day
Cubs injuries
Ben Brown · P · Injured 60-Day
Cade Horton · P · Injured 60-Day
Dansby Swanson · SS · Injured 10-Day
Gavin Hollowell · P · Injured 15-Day
Hunter Harvey · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele · P · Injured 60-Day
Phil Maton · P · Injured 60-Day
Porter Hodge · P · Injured 60-Day
Riley Martin · P · Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller · P · Injured 60-Day
Trent Thornton · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Austin · 1B · Injured 60-Day