Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
@
Sat, Sep 12, 3:11 PM CT
Final 1–5
Red Sox
Elo 1550 · #5 · 82-70
Randy Dobnak vs Ranger Suarez
Royals RL
+1.5-108Kalshi
Red Sox RL
-1.5+106NoVig
Over / Under
O 8.5-104Kalshi
U 8.5+106NoVig
Royals ML
+196ProphetX
Red Sox ML
-199NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
74°F
Cloudy
Wind 8 mph · out to CF (+8)
7 PM
8
8 PM
7
9 PM
4
10 PM
6
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Red Sox record
Overall83-70 · .542
Home38-37
Away45-33
Last 105-5
StreakW1

Win probability — Red Sox

Market66.0%
Model61.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRed Sox -199NoVig-2.9% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
94
ERA
2.73
FIP
3.97
K-BB%
8.3%
IP
69
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home343.931.606.03.9.296
Away351.540.946.22.1.198
Night442.441.155.92.8.226
vs LHB43—1.225.41.9.267
vs RHB26—1.367.44.9.219
rating
114
ERA
3.33
FIP
3.04
K-BB%
15.8%
IP
138
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home613.821.148.82.5.230
Away762.951.238.32.7.247
Night913.161.107.63.0.211
vs LHB38—1.329.52.4.267
vs RHB99—1.158.22.7.229

Injuries

Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day
Red Sox injuries
Anthony Seigler · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Ceddanne Rafaela · CF · Injured 10-Day
Curtis Mead · 3B · Injured 10-Day
Eduardo Rivera · P · Injured 60-Day
Eli White · CF · Injured 10-Day
Garrett Crochet · P · Injured 60-Day
Johan Oviedo · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Slaten · P · Injured 15-Day
Kutter Crawford · P · Injured 60-Day
Masataka Yoshida · DH · Injured 10-Day
Tanner Houck · P · Injured 60-Day
Triston Casas · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Tyron Guerrero · P · Injured 15-Day
Zack Kelly · P · Injured 60-Day