Astros
Elo 1497 · #18 · 76-76
@
Sat, Sep 12, 5:11 PM CT
Final 2–3
Rays
Elo 1547 · #6 · 92-59
Peter Lambert vs Ian Seymour
Astros RL
+1.5-163Kalshi
Rays RL
-1.5+156Kalshi
Over / Under
O 7.5-108NoVig
U 7.5+108Kalshi
Astros ML
+128ProphetX
Rays ML
-130NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
Roof closed
Neutral conditions
Astros record
Overall77-76 · .503
Home39-39
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Rays record
Overall93-59 · .612
Home53-25
Away40-34
Last 108-2
StreakW6

Win probability — Rays

Market56.5%
Model59.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRays -130NoVig+1.3% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
106
ERA
3.71
FIP
3.67
K-BB%
13.8%
IP
146
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home924.031.188.63.4.217
Away543.171.308.83.5.239
Night844.061.308.83.4.242
vs LHB79—1.278.55.1.195
vs RHB66—1.179.11.5.259
rating
119
ERA
4.27
FIP
4.03
K-BB%
22.8%
IP
122
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home703.750.9811.22.1.204
Away534.961.3710.83.1.257
Night683.711.0312.32.1.211
vs LHB41—1.1511.01.3.250
vs RHB81—1.1411.13.1.216

Injuries

Astros injuries
Brandon Walter · P · Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews · CF · Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa · SS · Injured 60-Day
Mike Burrows · P · Injured 60-Day
Steven Okert · P · Injured 15-Day
Rays injuries
Ben Williamson · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Edwin Uceta · P · Injured 60-Day
Garrett Cleavinger · P · Injured 15-Day
Gavin Lux · LF · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan Heasley · P · Injured 60-Day
Manuel Rodríguez · P · Injured 15-Day
Ryan Pepiot · P · Injured 60-Day
Shane McClanahan · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Wells · P · Injured 15-Day