Diamondbacks
Elo 1511 · #12 · 80-73
@
Fri, Sep 4, 7:11 PM CT
Final 1–3
Astros
Elo 1497 · #18 · 76-76
Merrill Kelly vs Cristian Javier
Diamondbacks RL
+1.5-170Kalshi
Astros RL
-1.5+163Kalshi
Over / Under
O 8.5-117Kalshi
U 8.5+115NoVig
Diamondbacks ML
+120NoVig
Astros ML
-121ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
83°F
Cloudy
Wind 4 mph · crosswind
7 PM
4
8 PM
4
9 PM
4
10 PM
2
Diamondbacks record
Overall80-73 · .523
Home43-35
Away37-38
Last 105-5
StreakL2
Astros record
Overall77-76 · .503
Home39-39
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakW1

Win probability — Astros

Market55.0%
Model56.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineAstros -121ProphetX+1.3% EV
Totalover 8.5 -117Kalshi · proj 9.37+0.0% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
Diamondbacks
rating
78
ERA
5.00
FIP
5.43
K-BB%
6.2%
IP
157
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home685.821.577.54.0.283
Away894.361.405.54.0.259
Night935.131.526.74.2.274
vs LHB90—1.625.85.0.270
vs RHB64—1.327.42.7.269
rating
95
ERA
5.31
FIP
4.75
K-BB%
11.6%
IP
61
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home325.061.349.03.9.242
Away295.591.597.83.7.288
Night425.401.497.14.3.261
vs LHB31—1.346.92.9.262
vs RHB30—1.5810.04.8.267

Injuries

Diamondbacks injuries
A.J. Puk · P · Injured 60-Day
Andrew Saalfrank · P · Injured 60-Day
Cristian Mena · P · Injured 60-Day
Ryan Thompson · P · Injured 60-Day
Tyler Locklear · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Astros injuries
Brandon Walter · P · Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews · CF · Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa · SS · Injured 60-Day
Mike Burrows · P · Injured 60-Day
Steven Okert · P · Injured 15-Day