Cubs
Elo 1559 · #4 · 85-68
@
Fri, Sep 4, 6:10 PM CT
Final 6–1
Marlins
Elo 1501 · #16 · 76-77
Shota Imanaga vs Janson Junk
Cubs RL
-1.5+122Kalshi
Marlins RL
+1.5-125NoVig
Over / Under
O 8.5+117Kalshi
U 8.5-120NoVig
Cubs ML
-144Kalshi
Marlins ML
+140ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Cloudy
Wind 3 mph · in from CF (−3)
7 PM
3
8 PM
6
9 PM
2
10 PM
2
Cubs record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home45-33
Away40-35
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Marlins record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home45-33
Away31-44
Last 105-5
StreakW2

Win probability — Marlins

Market41.8%
Model46.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineCubs -144Kalshi-4.0% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
108
ERA
3.80
FIP
4.54
K-BB%
18.6%
IP
168
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home1064.001.148.72.0.239
Away633.451.058.91.9.225
Night1014.261.088.31.8.232
vs LHB45—1.169.72.6.229
vs RHB122—1.108.61.8.235
rating
94
ERA
4.50
FIP
4.25
K-BB%
9.7%
IP
114
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home684.391.186.31.9.252
Away464.661.586.03.3.303
Night844.931.436.02.6.286
vs LHB68—1.527.22.8.293
vs RHB46—1.094.72.0.240

Injuries

Cubs injuries
Ben Brown · P · Injured 60-Day
Cade Horton · P · Injured 60-Day
Dansby Swanson · SS · Injured 10-Day
Gavin Hollowell · P · Injured 15-Day
Hunter Harvey · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele · P · Injured 60-Day
Phil Maton · P · Injured 60-Day
Porter Hodge · P · Injured 60-Day
Riley Martin · P · Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller · P · Injured 60-Day
Trent Thornton · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Austin · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Marlins injuries
Adam Mazur · P · Injured 60-Day
Andrew Nardi · P · Injured 60-Day
Anthony Bender · P · Injured 15-Day
Max Meyer · P · Injured 15-Day
Owen Caissie · RF · Injured 10-Day
Pete Fairbanks · P · Injured 15-Day
Robby Snelling · P · Injured 60-Day
Ronny Henriquez · P · Injured 60-Day
William Kempner · P · Injured 60-Day