Twins
Elo 1463 · #27 · 71-81
@
Fri, Sep 4, 6:41 PM CT
Final 1–4
White Sox
Elo 1497 · #19 · 77-75
Zebby Matthews vs Erick Fedde
Twins RL
+1.5-178Kalshi
White Sox RL
-1.5+170Kalshi
Over / Under
O 8.5-125NoVig
U 8.5+122Kalshi
Twins ML
+107ProphetX
White Sox ML
-108Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
69°F
Cloudy
Wind 10 mph · crosswind
7 PM
10
8 PM
9
9 PM
6
10 PM
9
Twins record
Overall71-82 · .464
Home40-38
Away31-44
Last 103-7
StreakL1
White Sox record
Overall78-75 · .510
Home44-31
Away34-44
Last 103-7
StreakW1

Win probability — White Sox

Market51.7%
Model56.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineWhite Sox -108Kalshi+2.1% EV
Totalover 8.5 -125NoVig · proj 9.98+2.1% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
96
ERA
4.74
FIP
4.82
K-BB%
13.0%
IP
125
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home632.571.066.12.4.220
Away626.931.439.23.2.270
Night733.341.177.12.4.245
vs LHB69—1.418.53.4.262
vs RHB57—1.046.72.1.225
White Sox
rating
83
ERA
3.97
FIP
5.16
K-BB%
7.5%
IP
134
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home693.131.325.23.4.248
Away654.871.367.13.1.262
Night733.561.256.02.8.246
vs LHB71—1.396.04.1.245
vs RHB62—1.306.42.3.266

Injuries

Twins injuries
Anthony Banda · P · Injured 60-Day
Byron Buxton · CF · Injured 10-Day
Cole Sands · P · Injured 60-Day
David Festa · P · Injured 60-Day
Kaelen Culpepper · SS · Injured 10-Day
Mick Abel · P · Injured 60-Day
Mike Paredes · P · Injured 60-Day
Pablo López · P · Injured 60-Day
White Sox injuries
Brooks Baldwin · LF · Injured 60-Day
Huascar Brazobán · P · Injured 15-Day
Joey Bart · C · Injured 10-Day
Jordan Leasure · P · Injured 60-Day
Ky Bush · P · Injured 60-Day
Mike Vasil · P · Injured 60-Day
Prelander Berroa · P · Injured 60-Day
Tanner Murray · LF · Injured 60-Day