Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
@
Tue, Sep 15, 7:10 PM CT
Final 2–4
Astros
Elo 1497 · #18 · 76-76
Michael Wacha vs Hunter Brown
Royals RL
+1.5-147NoVig
Astros RL
-1.5+144Kalshi
Over / Under
O 7.5-113Kalshi
U 7.5+111NoVig
Royals ML
+150Kalshi
Astros ML
-153NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
83°F
Cloudy
Wind 4 mph · crosswind
7 PM
4
8 PM
4
9 PM
4
10 PM
2
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Astros record
Overall77-76 · .503
Home39-39
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakW1

Win probability — Astros

Market60.0%
Model54.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineAstros -153NoVig-3.4% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
100
ERA
3.34
FIP
4.26
K-BB%
13.2%
IP
189
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home892.931.047.02.4.210
Away1003.701.147.22.3.239
Night1372.821.027.22.2.212
vs LHB108—1.097.72.5.215
vs RHB80—1.136.42.1.241
rating
106
ERA
3.43
FIP
3.93
K-BB%
15.0%
IP
97
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home583.551.3710.85.5.212
Away393.261.169.33.0.222
Night703.361.2610.14.3.219
vs LHB57—1.2811.55.0.202
vs RHB39—1.348.64.0.235

Injuries

Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day
Astros injuries
Brandon Walter · P · Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews · CF · Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa · SS · Injured 60-Day
Mike Burrows · P · Injured 60-Day
Steven Okert · P · Injured 15-Day