Orioles
Elo 1505 · #14 · 75-77
@
Tue, Sep 15, 6:10 PM CT
Final 7–5
Mets
Elo 1498 · #17 · 69-83
Shane Baz vs Sean Manaea
Orioles RL
+1.5-174NoVig
Mets RL
-1.5+170Kalshi
Over / Under
O 8.5+115NoVig
U 8.5-117Kalshi
Orioles ML
+122Kalshi
Mets ML
-124ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Cloudy
Wind 8 mph · out to CF (+8)
7 PM
8
8 PM
7
9 PM
4
10 PM
4
Orioles record
Overall75-78 · .490
Home36-39
Away39-39
Last 106-4
StreakW3
Mets record
Overall69-84 · .451
Home34-44
Away35-40
Last 104-6
StreakL5

Win probability — Mets

Market55.0%
Model53.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineMets -124ProphetX-1.5% EV
Totalunder 8.5 -117Kalshi · proj 7.2+2.5% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
Orioles
rating
103
ERA
4.11
FIP
3.61
K-BB%
12.4%
IP
173
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home853.921.388.23.0.270
Away884.301.337.73.3.257
Night1213.941.317.73.1.253
vs LHB100—1.518.53.8.281
vs RHB73—1.137.12.2.238
rating
103
ERA
4.74
FIP
4.34
K-BB%
15.1%
IP
139
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home674.731.349.12.8.266
Away724.751.318.12.5.264
Night805.271.448.22.8.284
vs LHB44—1.1510.62.2.242
vs RHB94—1.417.72.9.275

Injuries

Orioles injuries
Blaze Alexander · 3B · Injured 10-Day
Christian Franklin · CF · Injured 10-Day
Colin Selby · P · Injured 60-Day
Félix Bautista · P · Injured 60-Day
Jackson Holliday · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Jordan Westburg · 3B · Injured 60-Day
Keegan Akin · P · Injured 60-Day
Kyle Bradish · P · Injured 15-Day
Luis Robert Jr. · CF · Injured 10-Day
Ryan Helsley · P · Injured 60-Day
Ryan Mountcastle · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Tyler O'Neill · RF · Injured 10-Day
Zach Eflin · P · Injured 60-Day
Mets injuries
Cionel Pérez · P · Injured 15-Day
Daniel Duarte · P · Injured 15-Day
Devin Williams · P · Injured 15-Day
Jorge Polanco · DH · Injured 60-Day
Reed Garrett · P · Injured 60-Day
Robert Stock · P · Injured 15-Day
Tylor Megill · P · Injured 60-Day