Padres
Elo 1539 · #8 · 83-69
@
Wed, Sep 16, 7:41 PM CT
Final 9–3
Rockies
Elo 1399 · #30 · 56-96
Robbie Ray vs Mason Adams
Padres RL
-1.5-104Kalshi
Rockies RL
+1.5+104NoVig
Over / Under
O 11.5+117NoVig
U 11.5-117Kalshi
Padres ML
-156Kalshi
Rockies ML
+154ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Cloudy
Wind 6 mph · crosswind
7 PM
6
8 PM
4
9 PM
3
10 PM
1
Padres record
Overall84-69 · .549
Home46-29
Away38-40
Last 109-1
StreakW2
Rockies record
Overall56-97 · .366
Home31-44
Away25-53
Last 101-9
StreakL2

Win probability — Rockies

Market39.6%
Model44.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylinePadres -156Kalshi-3.1% EV
Totalunder 11.5 -117Kalshi · proj 10.7+0.3% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
86
ERA
3.60
FIP
4.80
K-BB%
8.0%
IP
162
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home823.201.357.05.2.214
Away814.021.318.34.0.236
Night973.711.277.94.6.212
vs LHB43—1.418.74.0.258
vs RHB117—1.327.44.9.213
rating
91
ERA
5.09
FIP
6.16
K-BB%
10.9%
IP
23
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home99.002.228.04.0.410
Away142.571.299.65.1.208
Night185.501.729.05.0.304
vs LHB10—2.1310.46.1.341
vs RHB12—1.308.03.6.256

Injuries

Padres injuries
Bryan Hoeing · P · Injured 60-Day
Gavin Sheets · 1B · Injured 10-Day
Jason Adam · P · Injured 60-Day
Jeremiah Estrada · P · Injured 15-Day
Joe Musgrove · P · Injured 60-Day
Lucas Giolito · P · Injured 60-Day
Luis Rengifo · LF · Injured 60-Day
Miguel Andujar · DH · Injured 10-Day
Ramón Laureano · LF · Injured 60-Day
Rockies injuries
Chase Dollander · P · Injured 60-Day
Jose Quintana · P · Injured 60-Day
Kris Bryant · DH · Injured 60-Day
McCade Brown · P · Injured 60-Day
Pierson Ohl · P · Injured 60-Day
Welinton Herrera · P · Injured 60-Day
Willi Castro · 2B · Injured 10-Day