Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
@
Wed, Sep 16, 7:11 PM CT
Final 5–2
Astros
Elo 1497 · #18 · 76-76
Daniel Lynch IV vs Cristian Javier
Royals RL
+1.5-144NoVig
Astros RL
-1.5+144Kalshi
Over / Under
O 8.5-117Kalshi
U 8.5+115NoVig
Royals ML
+150NoVig
Astros ML
-150Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
83°F
Cloudy
Wind 4 mph · crosswind
7 PM
4
8 PM
4
9 PM
4
10 PM
2
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Astros record
Overall77-76 · .503
Home39-39
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakW1

Win probability — Astros

Market59.6%
Model54.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineAstros -150Kalshi-3.2% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
97
ERA
3.29
FIP
3.77
K-BB%
9.3%
IP
77
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home453.221.055.23.0.198
Away323.381.097.32.3.221
Night494.041.225.93.5.222
vs LHB30—0.706.61.2.160
vs RHB47—1.315.83.7.236
rating
95
ERA
5.31
FIP
4.75
K-BB%
11.6%
IP
61
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home325.061.349.03.9.242
Away295.591.597.83.7.288
Night425.401.497.14.3.261
vs LHB31—1.346.92.9.262
vs RHB30—1.5810.04.8.267

Injuries

Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day
Astros injuries
Brandon Walter · P · Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews · CF · Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa · SS · Injured 60-Day
Mike Burrows · P · Injured 60-Day
Steven Okert · P · Injured 15-Day