Yankees
Elo 1566 · #3 · 88-64
@
Wed, Sep 16, 12:41 PM CT
Final 4–5
Twins
Elo 1463 · #27 · 71-81
Carlos Rodón vs Zebby Matthews
Yankees RL
-1.5+117Kalshi
Twins RL
+1.5-120NoVig
Over / Under
O 8.5+117Kalshi
U 8.5-117NoVig
Yankees ML
-144Kalshi
Twins ML
+141NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
67°F
Clear
Wind 6 mph · crosswind
7 PM
6
8 PM
1
9 PM
2
10 PM
2
Yankees record
Overall88-64 · .579
Home42-32
Away46-32
Last 107-3
StreakL1
Twins record
Overall71-82 · .464
Home40-38
Away31-44
Last 103-7
StreakL1

Win probability — Twins

Market41.8%
Model40.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineYankees -144Kalshi-0.5% EV
Totalunder 8.5 -117NoVig · proj 7.56+1.5% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
106
ERA
2.95
FIP
3.72
K-BB%
14.3%
IP
76
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home312.611.0010.43.2.180
Away453.181.219.35.4.177
Night402.681.1710.34.0.197
vs LHB19—1.1810.64.3.197
vs RHB58—1.119.54.5.172
rating
96
ERA
4.74
FIP
4.82
K-BB%
13.0%
IP
125
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home632.571.066.12.4.220
Away626.931.439.23.2.270
Night733.341.177.12.4.245
vs LHB69—1.418.53.4.262
vs RHB57—1.046.72.1.225

Injuries

Yankees injuries
Fernando Cruz · P · Injured 15-Day
Giancarlo Stanton · DH · Injured 60-Day
Jazz Chisholm Jr. · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Kervin Castro · P · Injured 60-Day
Ryan Weathers · P · Injured 15-Day
Trent Grisham · CF · Injured 10-Day
Twins injuries
Anthony Banda · P · Injured 60-Day
Byron Buxton · CF · Injured 10-Day
Cole Sands · P · Injured 60-Day
David Festa · P · Injured 60-Day
Kaelen Culpepper · SS · Injured 10-Day
Mick Abel · P · Injured 60-Day
Mike Paredes · P · Injured 60-Day
Pablo López · P · Injured 60-Day