Tigers
Elo 1518 · #10 · 71-80
@
Sat, Sep 5, 5:11 PM CT
Final 6–0
Guardians
Elo 1506 · #13 · 78-75
Framber Valdez vs Parker Messick
Tigers RL
+0.5+138NoVig
Guardians RL
-0.5-147NoVig
Over / Under
O 6.5-113Kalshi
U 6.5+111NoVig
Tigers ML
+141NoVig
Guardians ML
-144NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
72°F
Cloudy
Wind 3 mph · crosswind
7 PM
3
8 PM
3
9 PM
3
10 PM
3
Tigers record
Overall72-81 · .471
Home39-36
Away33-45
Last 107-3
StreakL2
Guardians record
Overall78-75 · .510
Home38-40
Away40-35
Last 106-4
StreakW2

Win probability — Guardians

Market58.7%
Model60.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineGuardians -144NoVig+0.4% EV
Totalover 6.5 -113Kalshi · proj 7.26+0.6% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
93
ERA
4.01
FIP
4.02
K-BB%
8.6%
IP
164
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home794.001.356.03.2.256
Away854.021.387.33.4.259
Night1094.621.516.33.8.277
vs LHB39—1.379.52.8.268
vs RHB125—1.365.83.5.254
rating
121
ERA
2.57
FIP
3.15
K-BB%
19.6%
IP
178
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home932.901.1510.22.4.234
Away852.210.918.52.3.184
Night1142.370.999.42.1.207
vs LHB47—1.209.12.5.242
vs RHB131—0.989.62.3.200

Injuries

Tigers injuries
Bailey Horn · P · Injured 60-Day
Burch Smith · P · Injured 60-Day
Jack Flaherty · P · Injured 15-Day
Justin Verlander · P · Injured 60-Day
Kerry Carpenter · RF · Injured 10-Day
Matt Vierling · CF · Injured 60-Day
Parker Meadows · CF · Injured 60-Day
Reese Olson · P · Injured 60-Day
Trey Sweeney · SS · Injured 60-Day
Wenceel Pérez · RF · Injured 60-Day
Will Vest · P · Injured 60-Day
Guardians injuries
Colin Holderman · P · Injured 15-Day
Rhys Hoskins · 1B · Injured 10-Day
Shawn Armstrong · P · Injured 60-Day