Cubs
Elo 1559 · #4 · 85-68
@
Sat, Sep 5, 3:11 PM CT
Final 6–5
Marlins
Elo 1501 · #16 · 76-77
Javier Assad vs Ryan Gusto
Cubs RL
-0.5-120NoVig
Marlins RL
+0.5+113NoVig
Over / Under
O 8.5+104NoVig
U 8.5-107ProphetX
Cubs ML
-118ProphetX
Marlins ML
+122Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Cloudy
Wind 3 mph · in from CF (−3)
7 PM
3
8 PM
6
9 PM
2
10 PM
2
Cubs record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home45-33
Away40-35
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Marlins record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home45-33
Away31-44
Last 105-5
StreakW2

Win probability — Marlins

Market45.1%
Model49.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineCubs -118ProphetX-1.1% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineMarlins +1.5 +113NoVig+24.1% EV

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
88
ERA
3.70
FIP
5.07
K-BB%
9.1%
IP
90
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home392.310.904.81.9.197
Away514.761.336.73.2.260
Night603.431.045.71.9.228
vs LHB43—1.477.33.8.263
vs RHB46—0.864.71.6.203
Marlins
rating
98
ERA
4.14
FIP
4.21
K-BB%
11.7%
IP
83
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home463.911.397.03.3.264
Away374.421.508.12.2.291
Night593.031.317.12.6.257
vs LHB49—1.467.23.7.266
vs RHB34—1.417.91.6.292

Injuries

Cubs injuries
Ben Brown · P · Injured 60-Day
Cade Horton · P · Injured 60-Day
Dansby Swanson · SS · Injured 10-Day
Gavin Hollowell · P · Injured 15-Day
Hunter Harvey · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele · P · Injured 60-Day
Phil Maton · P · Injured 60-Day
Porter Hodge · P · Injured 60-Day
Riley Martin · P · Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller · P · Injured 60-Day
Trent Thornton · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Austin · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Marlins injuries
Adam Mazur · P · Injured 60-Day
Andrew Nardi · P · Injured 60-Day
Anthony Bender · P · Injured 15-Day
Max Meyer · P · Injured 15-Day
Owen Caissie · RF · Injured 10-Day
Pete Fairbanks · P · Injured 15-Day
Robby Snelling · P · Injured 60-Day
Ronny Henriquez · P · Injured 60-Day
William Kempner · P · Injured 60-Day