Blue Jays
Elo 1514 · #11 · 76-77
@
Sat, Sep 5, 6:11 PM CT
Final 4–3
Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
Max Scherzer vs Seth Lugo
Blue Jays RL
-1.5+156Kalshi
Royals RL
+1.5-163Kalshi
Over / Under
O 9.5+100Kalshi
U 9.5-104Kalshi
Blue Jays ML
+100Kalshi
Royals ML
-101ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
92°F
Clear
Wind 4 mph · crosswind
7 PM
4
8 PM
2
9 PM
3
10 PM
5
Blue Jays record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home40-38
Away36-39
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1

Win probability — Royals

Market50.5%
Model51.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRoyals -101ProphetX+1.2% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
Blue Jays
rating
82
ERA
6.07
FIP
5.50
K-BB%
7.3%
IP
73
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home496.241.377.74.2.235
Away245.701.354.63.0.258
Night477.231.565.54.2.274
vs LHB43—1.715.35.1.280
vs RHB30—0.888.82.1.181
Royals
rating
95
ERA
4.99
FIP
4.14
K-BB%
10.3%
IP
164
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home864.071.366.33.1.269
Away786.031.567.72.7.312
Night1104.081.387.12.7.284
vs LHB100—1.607.43.4.304
vs RHB62—1.266.42.2.266

Injuries

Blue Jays injuries
Addison Barger · RF · Injured 60-Day
Anthony Santander · RF · Injured 60-Day
Bowden Francis · P · Injured 60-Day
Cody Ponce · P · Injured 60-Day
Jake Bloss · P · Injured 60-Day
Jameson Taillon · P · Injured 15-Day
Jonatan Clase · LF · Injured 60-Day
José Berríos · P · Injured 60-Day
Luis Urías · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Patrick Corbin · P · Injured 60-Day
Rudy Martin Jr. · RF · Injured 10-Day
Shane Bieber · P · Injured 15-Day
Trey Yesavage · P · Injured 15-Day
Yimi García · P · Injured 60-Day
Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day