Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Texas
Market52.7%
Model51.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBuckeyes +2 -106ProphetX+2.4% EV
MoneylineLonghorns -115ProphetX