Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — North Texas
Market41.0%
Model52.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadGreen +3.5 -122Kalshi+6.1% EV
MoneylineGreen +140ProphetX