Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Michigan
Market34.8%
Model42.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadWolverines +4.5 +104Kalshi+13.9% EV
MoneylineSooners -194Kalshi