Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Texas State
Market53.5%
Model49.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadRoadrunners +2 -101ProphetX+7.1% EV
MoneylineRoadrunners +116ProphetX