Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Purdue
Market42.2%
Model39.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadDeacons -2.5 -117Kalshi-4.4% EV
MoneylineDeacons -142ProphetX