Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Kentucky
Market23.3%
Model31.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadWildcats +9.5 +104Kalshi+18.5% EV
MoneylineTide -355Kalshi