Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Hawaii
Market72.5%
Model71.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadAggies +7.5 -109ProphetX+0.6% EV
MoneylineWarriors -280ProphetX