Kyler Murray vs Caleb Williams
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Bears
Market65.1%
Model57.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadVikings +4.5 -108Kalshi+10.2% EV
MoneylineBears -194Kalshi
TotalUnder 48.5 -108Kalshi+1.9% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Kyler Murray
Vikings · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
35
Caleb Williams
Bears · QBQB Elo
-9
vs avg
Average
Raw value
17.3
Games
17
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.