Trevor Lawrence vs Bo Nix
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Broncos
Market57.7%
Model60.2%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBroncos -2.5 -117Kalshi-1.5% EV
MoneylineBroncos -142ProphetX
TotalOver 45.5 +104Kalshi+3.3% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars · QBQB Elo
+23
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
28.4
Games
45
Bo Nix
Broncos · QBQB Elo
+46
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.4
Games
18
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.