Aaron Rodgers vs Drake Maye
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Patriots
Market67.6%
Model65.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadSteelers +5.5 -108Kalshi+3.1% EV
MoneylinePatriots -223Kalshi
TotalOver 41.5 +100Kalshi+10.7% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Steelers · QBQB Elo
+15
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.6
Games
34
Drake Maye
Patriots · QBQB Elo
0
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.4
Games
12
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.