Kirk Cousins vs Justin Herbert
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Chargers
Market72.2%
Model75.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadChargers -6.5 -104Kalshi+6.7% EV
MoneylineChargers -270Kalshi
TotalOver 43.5 +100Kalshi+6.0% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins
Raiders · QBQB Elo
+19
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
27.1
Games
40
Justin Herbert
Chargers · QBQB Elo
+30
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
30.8
Games
49
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.