Daniel Jones vs Patrick Mahomes
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Chiefs
Market72.4%
Model71.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadColts +6.5 +100Kalshi+1.5% EV
MoneylineChiefs -275ProphetX
TotalUnder 46.5 -108Kalshi-2.6% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Daniel Jones
Colts · QBQB Elo
-2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
19.7
Games
34
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
59
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.