Jayden Daniels vs Dak Prescott
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Cowboys
Market65.1%
Model63.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadCommanders +4.5 -113Kalshi+0.5% EV
MoneylineCowboys -188ProphetX
TotalUnder 50.5 -104Kalshi+8.4% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels
Commanders · QBQB Elo
+52
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
38.5
Games
19
Dak Prescott
Cowboys · QBQB Elo
+40
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
34.5
Games
40
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.