Joe Burrow vs C.J. Stroud
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Texans
Market57.7%
Model58.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadTexans -2.5 -113Kalshi-4.3% EV
MoneylineTexans -144Kalshi
TotalOver 45.5 -104Kalshi-0.7% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Joe Burrow
Bengals · QBQB Elo
+72
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
45.5
Games
46
C.J. Stroud
Texans · QBQB Elo
0
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.3
Games
36
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.