Deshaun Watson vs Baker Mayfield
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Buccaneers
Market78.5%
Model75.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBrowns +8.5 -108Kalshi+3.3% EV
MoneylineBuccaneers -376Kalshi
TotalOver 41.5 +100Kalshi+10.7% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson
Browns · QBQB Elo
-32
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
9.2
Games
19
Baker Mayfield
Buccaneers · QBQB Elo
+62
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
42.1
Games
49
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.