Malik Willis vs Brock Purdy
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — 49ers
Market87.5%
Model85.9%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadDolphins +13.5 -108Kalshi+5.1% EV
Moneyline49ers -870ProphetX
TotalOver 44.5 -108Kalshi-2.9% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Malik Willis
Dolphins · QBQB Elo
-40
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
6.4
Games
8
Brock Purdy
49ers · QBQB Elo
+47
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.8
Games
43
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.