Lamar Jackson vs Daniel Jones
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Colts
Market39.5%
Model32.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadRavens -3.5 +117Kalshi+16.0% EV
MoneylineRavens -156Kalshi
TotalUnder 47.5 +104Kalshi+5.9% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson
Ravens · QBQB Elo
+99
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
55.0
Games
48
Daniel Jones
Colts · QBQB Elo
-2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
19.7
Games
34
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.