Deshaun Watson vs Trevor Lawrence
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Jaguars
Market78.9%
Model80.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadJaguars -9.5 +104ProphetX+2.3% EV
MoneylineJaguars -376Kalshi
TotalOver 40.5 +104Kalshi+14.9% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson
Browns · QBQB Elo
-32
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
9.2
Games
19
Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars · QBQB Elo
+23
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
28.4
Games
45
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.