Caleb Williams vs Bryce Young
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Panthers
Market39.5%
Model41.9%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBears -2.5 -122Kalshi-7.2% EV
MoneylineBears -150Kalshi
TotalUnder 46.5 +107Kalshi+5.1% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Caleb Williams
Bears · QBQB Elo
-9
vs avg
Average
Raw value
17.3
Games
17
Bryce Young
Panthers · QBQB Elo
-3
vs avg
Average
Raw value
19.3
Games
29
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.