Baker Mayfield vs Joe Burrow
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Bengals
Market64.6%
Model66.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBengals -3.5 -104Kalshi+3.3% EV
MoneylineBengals -178Kalshi
TotalUnder 50.5 -108Kalshi+6.8% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield
Buccaneers · QBQB Elo
+62
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
42.1
Games
49
Joe Burrow
Bengals · QBQB Elo
+72
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
45.5
Games
46
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.