Malik Willis vs Kirk Cousins
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Raiders
Market60.3%
Model52.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadDolphins +3.5 -117Kalshi+9.3% EV
MoneylineRaiders -156ProphetX
TotalOver 40.5 +100Kalshi+12.6% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Malik Willis
Dolphins · QBQB Elo
-40
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
6.4
Games
8
Kirk Cousins
Raiders · QBQB Elo
+19
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
27.1
Games
40
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.