Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Dolphins
Market18.8%
Model30.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadDolphins +8.5 -102NoVig+16.3% EV
MoneylineChiefs -488Kalshi
TotalOver 44.5 -106NoVig+0.7% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
59
Malik Willis
Dolphins · QBQB Elo
-40
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
6.4
Games
8
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.