Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Commanders
Market45.7%
Model37.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadSeahawks -1.5 -106NoVig+9.8% EV
MoneylineSeahawks -122NoVig
TotalOver 42.5 -102NoVig+7.3% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Sam Darnold
Seahawks · QBQB Elo
+16
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.9
Games
26
Jayden Daniels
Commanders · QBQB Elo
+52
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
38.5
Games
19
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.