Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — 49ers
Market80.4%
Model78.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spread49ers -8.5 -108NoVig-3.4% EV
Moneyline49ers -456Kalshi
TotalUnder 48.5 -106NoVig+5.5% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett
Cardinals · QBQB Elo
-13
vs avg
Average
Raw value
15.9
Games
19
Brock Purdy
49ers · QBQB Elo
+47
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.8
Games
43
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.