Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Jaguars
Market55.1%
Model58.2%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadJaguars -1.5 -111NoVig+0.4% EV
MoneylineJaguars -130NoVig
TotalUnder 46.5 -111NoVig-3.8% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Joshua Dobbs
Patriots · QBQB Elo
+2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.9
Games
16
Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars · QBQB Elo
+23
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
28.4
Games
45
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.