Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Browns
Market42.2%
Model49.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBrowns +2.5 -150NoVig-15.1% EV
MoneylinePanthers -144Kalshi
TotalOver 39.5 -102NoVig+14.2% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Bryce Young
Panthers · QBQB Elo
-3
vs avg
Average
Raw value
19.3
Games
29
Deshaun Watson
Browns · QBQB Elo
-32
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
9.2
Games
19
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.