Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Buccaneers
Market52.6%
Model46.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadVikings +1.5 -108NoVig+8.6% EV
MoneylineVikings +108Kalshi
TotalUnder 46.5 -106NoVig-1.7% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Kyler Murray
Vikings · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
35
Baker Mayfield
Buccaneers · QBQB Elo
+62
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
42.1
Games
49
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.