Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Steelers
Market45.2%
Model54.2%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadSteelers +2.5 +100NoVig+17.6% EV
MoneylineSteelers +117Kalshi
TotalUnder 46.5 -111NoVig-3.9% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Joe Burrow
Bengals · QBQB Elo
+72
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
45.5
Games
46
Aaron Rodgers
Steelers · QBQB Elo
+15
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.6
Games
34
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.