Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Cowboys
Market39.8%
Model38.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadCowboys +3.5 -111NoVig-3.6% EV
MoneylineRavens -156Kalshi
TotalUnder 52.5 -111NoVig+9.5% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson
Ravens · QBQB Elo
+99
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
55.0
Games
48
Dak Prescott
Cowboys · QBQB Elo
+40
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
34.5
Games
40
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.