Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Colts
Market43.7%
Model40.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadTexans -2.5 -111NoVig-0.1% EV
MoneylineTexans -138Kalshi
TotalOver 44.5 -106NoVig+0.7% EV
Starting quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud
Texans · QBQB Elo
0
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.3
Games
36
Daniel Jones
Colts · QBQB Elo
-2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
19.7
Games
34
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.