Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Lions
Market75.1%
Model76.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadLions -7.5 -104NoVig+0.5% EV
MoneylineLions -317Kalshi
TotalUnder 47.5 -111NoVig-1.6% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Geno Smith
Jets · QBQB Elo
+31
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
31.1
Games
50
Jared Goff
Lions · QBQB Elo
+60
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
41.2
Games
55
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Jets injuriesNo reported injuries.
Lions injuriesD.J. Reed · CB · Questionable
Foot
Christian Mahogany · G · Out
Hip
Blake Miller · T · Out
Knee