Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Saints
Market60.8%
Model62.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadRaiders +3.5 -174NoVig-17.8% EV
MoneylineSaints -170Kalshi
TotalOver 44.5 -111NoVig-1.5% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins
Raiders · QBQB Elo
+19
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
27.1
Games
40
Zach Wilson
Saints · QBQB Elo
-42
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
5.6
Games
21
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.